Insight to help plan your menu

The main cost in chicken production is the price of wheat and maize, which remains high, but other factors such as the prevalence of Avian Flu, have kept chicken prices elevated. In recent months, prices seem to have stabilised mainly due to tari4-free imports from Ukraine and increased production from Thailand and Brazil. As a popular menu choice, customers are more likely to accept an increased price for chicken. It’s also worth considering using it as a main ingredient in a recipe instead of serving a whole cut if you need to manage costs more closely.

Although wheat prices peaked in May last year, the effects have yet to filter down to manufacturers of processed products such as bread and bakery. This is because commodities such as flour are often subject to long contracts which are still in effect. This means prices remain elevated until new contracts have been agreed with the newer wholesale wheat price.

Produce crops rely heavily on fertiliser, the availability of which has been reduced with the war in Ukraine. In fact, fertiliser cost has doubled in the last year. Last year’s heatwave did little to improve production, and increased energy costs have greatly impacted produce production, such as chips and other prepared vegetables. Using thicker chips or presenting them in a bucket will help you maintain plate coverage and help with portion control.

The rising cost of fertiliser, increased packaging prices and lower production volumes due to drought conditions in producing countries, have all increased the cost of the raw ingredient. But the real challenges faced by manufacturers of processed and canned goods are the huge energy bills associated with running machinery. Creating your purées and sauces from fresh may help you avoid some of this cost increase, alternatively consider using bell peppers for colour and zucchni and squash for texture and taste.

We’ve seen inflated prices on both these fish over the last 18 months due to Russia’s trade embargo and a 20% cut in fishing quotas last year. The good news is that despite a further cut in fishing quotas, prices are falling. This is largely due to processing plants in China opening up after a relaxation of Covid rules, however, we will likely have to wait 6 months for these lower costs to reach our shores. In the meantime, customers will likely accept a menu price increase on such a popular dish, but if you want to reduce costs, try hake and coley as great white fish alternatives.

Along with increased energy costs and the availability of labour needed to process and look after dairy cattle, big rises in fertiliser costs have made milk production much more expensive for farmers. However, there are signs that the farmgate price for milk costs has peaked, and a mixture of better prices for farmers, lower demand and favourable weather are all leading to a price reduction trend of dairy costs across the board.

The UK Avian Flu epidemic last winter was one of the worst on record, and about 2 million birds were culled as a result. Obviously, this has meant fewer laying birds. Add to this the increases in energy and animal bird feed costs, production has fallen significantly. Low volumes inevitably lead to high prices as retailers outbid each other to secure stock. If your menu relies heavily on egg as an ingredient, now might be the time to explore the myriad of egg alternatives or look into the versatility of Aquafaba as a good, cost-e4ective egg white alternative.

European sugar prices have seen an enormous rise in the past 12 months largely due to the rise in energy prices. This has meant raw European sugar, once one of the cheapest on the global market, is now the most expensive. Another unexpected reason for this rise is the increasing use of sugar as ethanol used in fuel. Although prices for manufactured products using sugar will probably remain high, sugar alternatives such as palm sugar, honey and fruit purées may be worth exploring in scratch cooking.

The high prices of animal feed, along with increased labour and energy costs at farms and abattoirs, has led to fewer pigs being bred and a slowing down of production. Germany, for example, has reported their lowest slaughter figures since 2004. Beef prices are similarly a4ected but are exacerbated by lower production and high post-Christmas demand. The gradual consumer interest in plant-rich dishes means there is plenty of opportunity to manage portion and ingredient weighting of pork and beef, or to pass on these costs as a premium menu choice.